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US Government Confirms No Extraterrestrial Life or Technology
Highly Likely

US Government Confirms No Extraterrestrial Life or Technology

Current Probability98%
Impossible (0%)Certain (100%)

Event Context

The United States government has not made any definitive public statements confirming the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology. Despite increased attention and reports concerning Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP), official pronouncements from the President, Cabinet members, Joint Chiefs of Staff, or federal agencies have not crossed the threshold required to confirm alien origins.

While various reports and hearings have explored UAP sightings and potential national security implications, these have not resulted in an official declaration of extraterrestrial existence. The criteria for this market specifically require a definitive statement, which has not been issued by the specified government entities. Therefore, the absence of such a statement is the most probable outcome.

Past government actions, such as the establishment of UAP task forces and the release of unclassified reports, indicate a willingness to investigate and share information. However, these efforts have consistently stopped short of confirming alien life or technology, focusing instead on unexplained phenomena within Earth's atmosphere or space.

Sources

Resolution Rules

The market resolves 'Yes' if the US President, Cabinet member, Joint Chiefs of Staff member, or a federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No'.

Resolution Deadline

December 31, 2025

Market Source: Polymarket

ID: 4301f859