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US-Venezuela military engagement remains unlikely by year-end
Unlikely

US-Venezuela military engagement remains unlikely by year-end

Current Probability34%
Impossible (0%)Certain (100%)

Event Context

Tensions between the United States and Venezuela have remained a focal point in regional politics. While diplomatic relations are strained, direct military confrontations between the two nations have been infrequent. The U.S. maintains a presence in the region, and Venezuela has its own defense apparatus, creating a potential for friction. However, as of the current market period, there have been no reported incidents that meet the definition of a military engagement as outlined by the market's resolution criteria. This includes direct use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, or exchanges of gunfire between the military forces of both countries.

Sources

Resolution Rules

Market resolves 'Yes' if US and Venezuelan military forces engage in direct use of force between August 21 and December 31, 2025. Excludes intercepted attacks and non-violent actions.

Resolution Deadline

December 31, 2025

Market Source: Polymarket

ID: 0a2897f2